While global trade tensions grow, Ontario is taking a bold step: increasing its deficit to invest in the future. Discover how this could impact workers, businesses, and the province’s economic outlook.
Ontario Faces 2025 with Strategy, Not Fear
Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy has made it clear: the province is not immune to global trade shocks. But instead of tightening its belt, the newly re-elected Ford government is doubling down on strategic investments.
The latest provincial budget reveals a $10 billion increase in the deficit for 2025–26, aimed at stimulating growth and protecting jobs in the face of U.S. tariffs and a slowing global economy.
“Our path to balance is only delayed by one year — to 2027,” Bethlenfalvy told BNN Bloomberg. “We’ve got to meet the moment. Tariffs are impacting economies everywhere.”
A Bigger Deficit — But for a Bigger Economy
Bethlenfalvy isn’t worried about the increased spending. In fact, he views it as necessary:
- Short-term relief: Over $30 billion in immediate support for workers and businesses.
- Long-term vision: Investments in critical industries to build “the best economy in the G7.”
This isn’t just about weathering the storm. It’s about emerging stronger, more competitive, and future-ready.
4 Pillars of Ontario’s Economic Game Plan
The province’s strategy centers around four major strengths:
- Critical minerals and mining: Ontario’s “Ring of Fire” project aims to fuel clean tech and battery production.
- Clean and nuclear energy: With approval for its first small modular reactor, Ontario is taking bold steps in sustainable energy.
- Advanced manufacturing: Tax incentives like the Ontario Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit are driving industrial growth.
- Technology and innovation: Ontario is investing in its digital economy to attract global talent and capital.
Together, these areas form the foundation of a modern, diversified economy designed to thrive even under global pressure.
Strengthening Trade — Starting at Home
While international trade may be shaky, Ontario is turning inward to strengthen interprovincial trade — and unlocking massive economic potential.
Just this week, Premier Doug Ford and Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew signed an agreement to increase the movement of goods and labor between their provinces.
“Canada’s best trading partner is Canada,” said Bethlenfalvy. “We’re opening up Ontario’s market, and others are joining.”
The potential impact? An estimated $200 billion boost in internal trade — an exciting opportunity for businesses across sectors.
How Will Ontario Pay for All This?
To finance the expanded deficit, Ontario plans to borrow $59.8 billion, with a significant portion raised through foreign currency bond sales.
Despite the hefty amount, Bethlenfalvy remains optimistic:
“We’ve had strong access to capital markets. Our debt-to-GDP and interest-to-revenue ratios are better than they’ve been in a decade.”
In fact, the province recently earned two credit rating upgrades (S&P and DBRS) and is under positive watch by Moody’s — a strong vote of confidence from global investors.
What This Means for Residents, Workers & Entrepreneurs
Whether you’re living in Ontario, running a business, or planning to invest in the province, here’s what to watch for:
- ✅ More job opportunities in energy, mining, and tech.
- ✅ New incentives for manufacturing and innovation.
- ✅ A more connected Canadian economy, thanks to growing interprovincial partnerships.
While higher deficits can sound concerning, strategic investments today could mean a stronger, more resilient Ontario tomorrow.
Final Thoughts: Risky Move or Smart Strategy?
Ontario is choosing action over hesitation. With rising tariffs and global uncertainty, the government is betting on growth — not austerity.
If this plan succeeds, Ontario could emerge as a leader in clean energy, critical resources, and advanced manufacturing. But as with any big move, the results will depend on execution.
One thing’s certain: the decisions made today will shape Ontario’s economy for years to come.